Throwing you a bender because I just thought you should know…
The Tampa Bay Rays have done it again! They have managed to make a good roster move, rid themselves of a depreciating asset, maintain a good public relations position, and save themselves from wasting millions of dollars.
The Rays went ahead and let the Atlanta Braves make the first big boo boo of the Hot Stove season.
B. J. Upton takes his bat and glove up I-75 in exchange for $75.25 million over the next five seasons. While he received market value for a star (not super star), the 28 year old Upton arrives at Turner Field as a somewhat valuable player who has actually performed below the level of his talent in the major leagues so far in his career.
The Braves do not feel they overpaid for Upton but losing a 2013 first-round draft pick to the Rays adds to the cost and just makes the deal even sweeter for Tampa Bay. Based on how well the Rays have drafted and developed picks in the last decade, the return in both the cost and productivity departments is a huge increase over having Upton.
Upton settled into center field as a regular in the big leagues in 2007 after being promoted to the majors in 2004. As a 22 year old, Upton put up numbers he has been unable to reach or duplicate in five seasons since. He slugged 24 home runs, stole 22 bases, compiled a .300 batting average to go with a .411 slugging percentage. This translated to a very productive 4.1 WAR, Wins Above Replacement, which is an all encompassing modern measurement of a player.
2008 saw Upton lose his power, playing with an injury, and produce just nine home runs. This would be his lowest HR output in a full major league season. Surgery on the shoulder to repair it led to speculation that 2009 would be a monster season and break out campaign for the 24 year old. Apparently the shoulder had not returned to 100% and was taking longer than expected to heal. Upton struggled through his worst season, hitting .241 with a slugging percentage of just .313.
His power seemed to return in 2010 and progress through 2012 as Upton , strangely, put up a career high 28 home runs. Because in spite of the power return, a complete regression in approach to each at bat led to a career high 169 strikeouts and a career low walk total. This led to a sub .300 on base percentage for 2012. Over the last three seasons combined, B.J.’s batting average is at .242 with an on-base percentage barely above .300. Never has someone with 28 home runs for a season ever looked so lost and so void of any plan at the plate.
Upton’s play in centerfield is a debatable topic. Local broadcasters have declared he is the best defensive center fielder in baseball and some writers proclaim him as a top 3 defender. A closer analysis and reviewing him on a fundamental basis reveals a different story. He does have speed, he does have a strong arm, and he does move nicely, appearing to glide to the ball effortlessly.
Detailed analysis of his movements often show a poor path to tracking balls which results in some catches appearing harder than they could have been and other balls falling for hits when they could have been outs. Despite a strong arm, the tendency to crank it up and miss the cut off man has led to extra bases being taken by runners. This leads to more pitches being made under stress as hurlers attempt to dig out from situations created by his gifts to the opponent.
Upton continues to make mental errors from a position that normally sets the example for the corner outfielders. He does have a natural ability to play the position but often negates that talent by playing overly shallow, at least to the point that many advanced metrics measuring his range indicate he is giving up territory. He is still prone to lapses in attention and lackadaisical play. Overall, some advanced fielding metrics and defensive measurements have even graded Upton as below average.
The Braves have replaced Michael Bourn with Upton and it could work out, it is a calculated risk to some degree. Upton is two years younger, but in regards to defense, B.J. will be a significant downgrade. He has the talent and ability to make up for that at the dish and Turner Field may even play a role and be helpful in that aspect. But a five year, $75 million investment for a .240 hitter with a low walk rate and a guaranteed 150 strikeouts per year seems like a reach.
Age 27 is now generally accepted as a player’s most prime year for performance. Even though Upton just completed his, there is the possibility that he is still poised for a break out season and some peak years. The Braves are obviously banking on that. The Rays took a different approach thinking that $75 million and a draft pick would be more productive over the next five seasons.
After 8 major league seasons, 6 as a regular centerfielder, Upton cashes in, the Rays move on and “potential” remains just another word for “hasn’t done anything yet.”
All this because I know more about nothing…
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