Throwing you a bender because I just thought you should know…
As NFL camps are in full swing and titanic preseason matchups between guys who will be loading UPS trucks soon are taking place in football stadiums around the country, it is time to analyze some amazing baseball occurrences!
The past four decades have seen steady declines in scoring and batting averages (despite PED use) with record setting increases each year in strikeouts. The advent of advanced statistics and the perceived increase in the value of each out has led to this. But the strategy involved with this has also seen the near elimination of micro managing and small ball. The elements of small ball, the sacrifice bunt and intentional walk, are on pace to set an all time low for the second straight season. The stolen base continues to decline with attempts at their second lowest in 42 years.
The main number involved with this trend is 24, as in the number of combinations of outs, quantity and position of men on base. Run expectancy can be generated from these combos and managers are now refusing to go against those expectations to give up an out. The spectrum ranges from a team having the bases loaded and no one out expected to score 2.23 runs in that half inning to a team with two outs and no one on expected to score 0.09 runs. Just like football coaches with the two point conversion chart, managers are consulting the matrix during games.
Last week, Carlos Beltran of the Cardinals created a modern day stink (no one would have said a thing back in 1929) when he bunted on his own with two men on, no outs and the Cardinals down 3-1. This was a National League game with the second batter in the lineup at the plate along with playing at home for a tie and moving the tying run into scoring position. A no brainer, right? According to the chart, it was a poor decision and the reason that Beltran bunted on his own without receiving the order from manager Mike Methany. The run expectancy of runners on first and second with no outs is 1.417 and it drops to 1.291 with runners on second and third and one out.
Well, the bunt worked and the next hitter drove in one run with a ground out and the Cardinals lost 3-2.
Most people don’t see the additional damage a sacrifice bunt does beyond the inning in which it happens. They scream and yell about “old school” baseball and playing “by the book” while not realizing Earl Weaver started throwing that book away in 1968!
This brings us to the second number in the cadence, 39. By bunting and giving up an out in a previous inning, a manager limits his ability and chances to cause the lineup to rotate one additional spot. Big deal? Yes!
The Rule of 39 in baseball shows that a team’s winning percentage is greatly based on being able to bring 39 or more batters to the plate in a game. The 39th batter of course would be the number three hitter, such as Miguel Cabrera or Evan Longoria, batting for a fifth time. So getting the last part of the cadence, No. 3 hitter for a 5th time, into play increases the chance to win and further pushes small ball to the back burner.
Joe Maddon must not be a believer in the bunt as the Rays rank 25th in the majors so far this year. The other problem generated by bunting is you have to analyze the legitimate chance of the next two hitters being able to drive in the run as the sacrifice often results in the next hitter being walked. As the Rays usually don’t have two potent options back to back in their lineup, only 19 sacrifices have been made by Tampa Bay this year. With the increase in strikeouts and better defensive positioning, more teams are pitching to “dangerous” hitters so the intentional walk is trending down as well.
Earl Weaver used to eschew the sacrifice bunt and wait for the three run bomb and everyone just thought it was eccentric Weaver being stubborn. Turns out, he was just ahead of his time in determining the value of an out. He also would rarely signal his players to steal bases as well.
Managers now know you have to be successful on 75% of your steal attempts in order to be in compliance with the Run Expectancy chart. A runner on first with no outs leads to 0.83 runs. After a successful steal, a runner on second with no outs leads to 1.06 runs. But if he is thrown out, no one on with one out leads to 0.25 runs. So the cost is three times more severe than the potential gain.
So with all this information on the table, millions of dollars in contracts riding on decisions, the small ball strategy and decision making of managers has now been pushed to a computer generated chart. Somewhere, Billy Martin is rolling over in his grave.
So with all this information on the table, millions of dollars in contracts riding on decisions, the small ball strategy and decision making of managers has now been pushed to a computer generated chart. Somewhere, Billy Martin is rolling over in his grave.
All this because I know more about nothing...
