Still Picking on the Uptons!

Throwing you a bender because I just thought you should know...

So while I have the Uptons on my mind, I thought I might as well look a little more closely at why Justin has not been offered a long term, "face of the franchise" deal like Joey Votto or Evan Longoria. He fits right in to that mold as a 25 year old, potential filled, outfielder that possesses all the tools and seemingly has yet to reach his peak.

Instead of the Diamondbacks rejecting any clubs snooping around as to the availability of Upton, they have made it quite clear, quite often, that he can be involved in trade discussions. For the past two seasons, Justin's name has come up on numerous occasions. Even after the winter meetings, his name is still being involved in possible trades. With the value of youth and club friendly contracts emphasized in today's baseball market, Upton would appear to be a prime candidate to remain with his team and be offered a lengthy extension.

By this point, with Arizona declaring they like him, but unwilling to extend his deal, Upton has surely determined that he may be better off leaving the Diamondbacks. So why is Upton so available? There seems to be a market for him as several teams have reportedly inquired about him and a couple have seriously attempted to acquire him via trade. But the Diamondbacks know him better than any other organization as he was drafted and developed by Arizona.

Arizona has coaches, executives and scouts that have seen Upton for all these years. They know what he brings to the ballpark on a nightly basis. Baseball is a very hard game and Upton is wildly inconsistent which is typical for a developing player of any talent level and not at all out of the ordinary for a 25 year old.

But the injury factor usually does not play such a large role at this juncture. The injury risk is significantly lower and less of a concern with such a young player. But Upton does have health concerns at just 25. He has only played over 150 games once in his five full seasons and has been slowed or disabled in the second half of seasons often. So if his tools and talents dictate he should be playing, how does he not even start 18% of the games during his ages 20-24? Part of his inconsistency must come from the injuries.

On the other hand, Upton may try to lobby to stay in Arizona and Chase Field. His numbers are significantly higher at home whether that is because of the actual park or just the familiarity some young players have during home games. It also may give pause to some teams in what they are willing to give up to acquire him. Justin is only hitting .250 in 367 road games with an OBP just above .300 which is in the journeyman level of statistics. Normally, that could be understood for a young player, but even though Upton is 25, he has played five years in the big leagues and that experience should have resulted in better home/road splits by now.

It just doesn't seem that Justin is a franchise player and the Diamondbacks might recognize that. Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates is the same age and you would not be able to pry him from Pittsburgh. He continues to get better and is definitely representing the Pirates as a franchise player while Upton can be had for a reasonable return.

But just like B.J., Justin is a superstar waiting to break out. And also like B.J., the potential tag is still stuck to him, even after five major league seasons. Maybe a new ballpark and new lineup would help Justin make the leap to stardom, but I am guessing Arizona doesn't see it that way. So maybe someone will take a chance on a 25 year old with monster tools, keeping in mind that, once again, "potential" is just another word for "hasn't done anything yet."

All this because I know more about nothing...

Did B.J. Upton Thank Marvin Miller?

Throwing you a bender because I just thought you should know…

Marvin Miller died last week and it caused me to stop and wonder if B.J. Upton, Jeff Keppinger, or Angel Pagan even knew who he was, yet alone thanked him.

In 1966, the Players Association was a mess and the players were obsessed with improving the state of their pension plan. Miller was a labor economist for the United Steelworkers, contemplating taking the position of representing the Major League Baseball players. Miller listened to their concerns with the pension plan while becoming even more shocked by many other issues painting a horrible overall picture for the players.

At that time, working conditions were horrible for the players. Owners made players work for several consecutive weeks without a day off; double headers were regularly scheduled and even played on consecutive days. From 1946-1965, the minimum player salary had “climbed” from $5,000 to $6,000! Even little things which presented dangerous working conditions were in place such as poor warning tracks and unpadded fences and outfield walls.

Miller dug even deeper and was horrified to discover the “reserve clause” in every standard baseball contract. Miller determined this was “one of the worst labor documents I’ve ever seen.” This clause allowed the team to renew a player’s contract without the player’s approval for the period of one year. In the eyes of the owners, this clause could be renewed indefinitely each year. This allowed the owners to have complete control over a player in terms of pay until they decided to trade or release them. Miller took the job.

He attacked the job on a philosophy that gradual, incremental victories would yield more progress than winning an issue by a blowout and creating bad feelings. He obviously had an expert handle on the economics of the player’s situation and decided to start his progressive plan by going after wages. The minimum player salary increased to $10,000 in his first negotiation and he upgraded the pension plan shortly thereafter. Even currently, the pension plan is an incredibly generous agreement. Many players who retired before free agency was in place make more in the pension plan than they did in salary while playing.

Previously, the Commissioner of Baseball, hand picked by the owners, was the “impartial” arbitrator to oversee grievances. The negotiation for the 1970 agreement had Miller establishing an outsider as the impartial arbitrator. This proved to be crucial later and Miller knew it, setting up his biggest move to come.

His earlier progress and victories with the wages and pension plan gained the backing and full support of the players. This had never been achieved previously in their association. By gaining this status, Miller was now able to take on the reserve clause. Under Miller’s counsel, Curt Flood, a St. Louis Cardinals outfielder, sued, claiming the clause violated anti-trust laws and restrained fair trade. Flood went the distance with his case, raising huge awareness and receiving gratitude from the players even though he eventually lost in front of the Supreme Court and cost himself his baseball career.

However, this allowed Miller to instruct two other players, Andy Messersmith and Dave McNally, to play an entire season without having signed their contracts and then file grievances afterwards. The arbitrator reviewing the grievances ruled in the player’s favor, ruling the clause was good for one year only, not in perpetuity. The decision was monumental and abolished the reserve clause and allowed free agency to begin.

In regards to Miller’s historical spot in the game of baseball, his absence from the Hall of Fame seems very political. Eligible “pioneers” are selected by a Veterans Committee, instead of the Baseball Writers Association of America. The Veterans Committee is populated by current or former management members which explains how Bowie Kuhn (an employee of owners and management) can be inducted and Marvin Miller remains out.

But Miller’s legacy really lives on through the state of the game, the entire game. While player’s rights and salaries are healthy, the overall prosperity of Major League Baseball is phenomenal. Miller summed it up very succinctly just before his death by saying, “When I began…there were 20 major league franchises and they had a combined revenue of $50 million for the whole year. Last year, revenues exceeded $6 billion. That’s the industry we’ve ruined with higher salaries.”

In the midst of that $6 billion industry, these three players (Upton, Keppinger and Pagan) that will only enter the Hall of Fame as visitors, signed to play baseball for a combined $127.25 million. On their behalf: Thank you Mr. Miller.

All this because I know more about nothing…

Tampa Bay Rays Win! Upton Signs with Braves!

Throwing you a bender because I just thought you should know…

The Tampa Bay Rays have done it again! They have managed to make a good roster move, rid themselves of a depreciating asset, maintain a good public relations position, and save themselves from wasting millions of dollars.

The Rays went ahead and let the Atlanta Braves make the first big boo boo of the Hot Stove season.

B. J. Upton takes his bat and glove up I-75 in exchange for $75.25 million over the next five seasons. While he received market value for a star (not super star), the 28 year old Upton arrives at Turner Field as a somewhat valuable player who has actually performed below the level of his talent in the major leagues so far in his career.

The Braves do not feel they overpaid for Upton but losing a 2013 first-round draft pick to the Rays adds to the cost and just makes the deal even sweeter for Tampa Bay. Based on how well the Rays have drafted and developed picks in the last decade, the return in both the cost and productivity departments is a huge increase over having Upton.

Upton settled into center field as a regular in the big leagues in 2007 after being promoted to the majors in 2004. As a 22 year old, Upton put up numbers he has been unable to reach or duplicate in five seasons since. He slugged 24 home runs, stole 22 bases, compiled a .300 batting average to go with a .411 slugging percentage. This translated to a very productive 4.1 WAR, Wins Above Replacement, which is an all encompassing modern measurement of a player.

2008 saw Upton lose his power, playing with an injury, and produce just nine home runs. This would be his lowest HR output in a full major league season. Surgery on the shoulder to repair it led to speculation  that 2009 would be a monster season and break out campaign for the 24 year old. Apparently the shoulder had not returned to 100% and was taking longer than expected to heal. Upton struggled through his worst season, hitting .241 with a slugging percentage of just .313.

His power seemed to return in 2010 and progress through 2012 as Upton , strangely, put up a career high 28 home runs. Because in spite of the power return, a complete regression in approach to each at bat led to a career high 169 strikeouts and a career low walk total. This led to a sub .300 on base percentage for 2012. Over the last three seasons combined, B.J.’s batting average  is at .242 with an on-base percentage barely above .300. Never has someone with 28 home runs for a season ever looked so lost and so void of any plan at the plate.

Upton’s play in centerfield is a debatable topic.  Local broadcasters have declared he is the best defensive center fielder in baseball and some writers proclaim him as a top 3 defender. A closer analysis and reviewing him on a fundamental basis reveals a different story. He does have speed, he does have a strong arm, and he does move nicely, appearing to glide to the ball effortlessly.

Detailed analysis of his movements often show a poor path to tracking balls which results in some catches appearing harder than they could have been and other balls falling for hits when they could have been outs. Despite a strong arm, the tendency to crank it up and miss the cut off man has led to extra bases being taken by runners. This leads to more pitches being made under stress as hurlers attempt to dig out from situations created by his gifts to the opponent. 

Upton continues to make mental errors from a position that normally sets the example for the corner outfielders. He does have a natural ability to play the position but often negates that talent by playing overly shallow, at least to the point that many advanced metrics measuring his range indicate he is giving up territory. He is still prone to lapses in attention and lackadaisical play. Overall, some advanced fielding metrics and defensive measurements have even graded Upton as below average.

The Braves have replaced Michael Bourn with Upton and it could work out, it is a calculated risk to some degree. Upton is two years younger, but in regards to defense, B.J. will be a significant downgrade. He has the talent and ability to make up for that at the dish and Turner Field may even play a role and be helpful in that aspect. But a five year, $75 million investment for a .240 hitter with a low walk rate and a guaranteed 150 strikeouts per year seems like a reach.

Age 27 is now generally accepted as a player’s most prime year for performance. Even though Upton just completed his, there is the possibility that he is still poised for a break out season and some peak years. The Braves are obviously banking on that. The Rays took a different approach thinking that $75 million and a draft pick would be more productive over the next five seasons.

After 8 major league seasons, 6 as a regular centerfielder, Upton cashes in, the Rays move on and “potential” remains just another word for “hasn’t done anything yet.”

All this because I know more about nothing…