Still Picking on the Uptons!

Throwing you a bender because I just thought you should know...

So while I have the Uptons on my mind, I thought I might as well look a little more closely at why Justin has not been offered a long term, "face of the franchise" deal like Joey Votto or Evan Longoria. He fits right in to that mold as a 25 year old, potential filled, outfielder that possesses all the tools and seemingly has yet to reach his peak.

Instead of the Diamondbacks rejecting any clubs snooping around as to the availability of Upton, they have made it quite clear, quite often, that he can be involved in trade discussions. For the past two seasons, Justin's name has come up on numerous occasions. Even after the winter meetings, his name is still being involved in possible trades. With the value of youth and club friendly contracts emphasized in today's baseball market, Upton would appear to be a prime candidate to remain with his team and be offered a lengthy extension.

By this point, with Arizona declaring they like him, but unwilling to extend his deal, Upton has surely determined that he may be better off leaving the Diamondbacks. So why is Upton so available? There seems to be a market for him as several teams have reportedly inquired about him and a couple have seriously attempted to acquire him via trade. But the Diamondbacks know him better than any other organization as he was drafted and developed by Arizona.

Arizona has coaches, executives and scouts that have seen Upton for all these years. They know what he brings to the ballpark on a nightly basis. Baseball is a very hard game and Upton is wildly inconsistent which is typical for a developing player of any talent level and not at all out of the ordinary for a 25 year old.

But the injury factor usually does not play such a large role at this juncture. The injury risk is significantly lower and less of a concern with such a young player. But Upton does have health concerns at just 25. He has only played over 150 games once in his five full seasons and has been slowed or disabled in the second half of seasons often. So if his tools and talents dictate he should be playing, how does he not even start 18% of the games during his ages 20-24? Part of his inconsistency must come from the injuries.

On the other hand, Upton may try to lobby to stay in Arizona and Chase Field. His numbers are significantly higher at home whether that is because of the actual park or just the familiarity some young players have during home games. It also may give pause to some teams in what they are willing to give up to acquire him. Justin is only hitting .250 in 367 road games with an OBP just above .300 which is in the journeyman level of statistics. Normally, that could be understood for a young player, but even though Upton is 25, he has played five years in the big leagues and that experience should have resulted in better home/road splits by now.

It just doesn't seem that Justin is a franchise player and the Diamondbacks might recognize that. Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates is the same age and you would not be able to pry him from Pittsburgh. He continues to get better and is definitely representing the Pirates as a franchise player while Upton can be had for a reasonable return.

But just like B.J., Justin is a superstar waiting to break out. And also like B.J., the potential tag is still stuck to him, even after five major league seasons. Maybe a new ballpark and new lineup would help Justin make the leap to stardom, but I am guessing Arizona doesn't see it that way. So maybe someone will take a chance on a 25 year old with monster tools, keeping in mind that, once again, "potential" is just another word for "hasn't done anything yet."

All this because I know more about nothing...