Tuesday, March 12, 2013

NFL Free Agency is... Here!

Throwing you a bender because I just thought you should know...

Taking a quick break from Spring Training, the NFL has ramped up the spotlight again this week for the annual free agency illusion it perpetrates on the fan base. With such a devoted group of football followers willing to guzzle the Kool-Aid and pretend this free agency process matters, the NFL really has no choice but to take advantage of yet another opportunity.

Each year I try to get excited about the NFL free agency system, but it just ends in disappointment once the results are played out over a season or two. The sport and the systems that teams use are just not designed to maximize the productivity clubs receive back from signing free agents. The players cash in and get their just due, but that pay generally reflects compensation for past performance.

Free agency in football is just a publicity grab and general managers that do their homework and crunch the numbers know this. However, some are still just blinded by the "easy" way to improve and continue to chase players and, oftentimes, problems. To a degree, it seems as if it should be a smart move. Throwing someone else's money at a player with a past history of good performance in another team's system without losing draft picks appears to be a great solution to an opening or deficient area of a team.

But reality usually reveals itself, and rather quickly in the NFL.

Recent reflections make you cringe. Albert Haynesworth signed with the Redskins in February of 2009 eclipsing all salaries to date for defensive players. Based on that, shouldn't the guy at least still be in the NFL right now? In fact, three times in the last ten years, Washington "won" the off season free agency period. However, in that decade, the Skins only finished over .500 twice. Now having secured some talent through the draft, they were on the winning side again and in the playoffs this past season, hmmmmm.

The Eagles jumped in to purchase their version of a Dream Team with Nnamdi Asomugha in July 2011. Two seasons later, the coach and GM are gone and the organization is trying to unload the remainder of his deal and the player. The Texans let Mario Williams bolt for Buffalo for huge dollars ($50 million guaranteed) and promptly went 12-4 and into the playoffs. The Bills and Williams? They limped home at 6-10 with Williams having 37 tackles on the year!
The Buccaneers jumped in with their first big signings in years. Carl Nicks, Vincent Jackson and Eric Wright all signed on to take the Pewter Pirates to the Promised Land. By spending over $132 million on these three players, the Bucs might feel cheated with missing the playoffs, 9 losses and a last place finish in their division.

So will teams learn and avoid these same pitfalls this year? Highly doubtful. The NFL even went as far as to throw in a teaser for these teams with salary cap money to spend by offering them a legal tampering window this year. now they have three days to drool and trip over themselves to think of ways to waste money and roster spots while waiting for the Tuesday 4 pm hour when they can have their mistakes come to fruition!

The NFL is designed to have coaches develop and implement systems where the talent of the players is maximized. Organizations are very adept at introducing schemes that allow the physical gifts of their players to excel. Football just does not allow that transition to other teams and different systems to work out positively. Signing Peyton Manning and having him run the Tebow offense would have been ludicrous. Having him bring his own system he was always in allowed that signing to be a winner. After that however, most teams try to plug a square hole with a round free agent.

Wide receivers generally command big bucks on the market but sometimes they seem to forget that leaving the quarterback that helped them succeed may be a boo boo. Will Wes Welker do better without Brady, Mike Wallace improve without Roethlisberger, and Greg Jennings match his performance without Rodgers? The contracts will be good but remember, the teams with money to sign these guys don't come equipped with quite the same personnel at the QB spot.

So looking around at Cleveland, Miami, Kansas City and Tampa Bay with huge cap space to spend, it makes one wonder what direction they will take. Second tier bargains that fill a specific need and even retaining your own free agents that already know the coaches and system is a wiser and more productive move.

This next week of signings will have very little to do with determining the outcome of results for 2013 or pushing any team from pretender to contender. The draft is where things happen, the QB is essential and developing solid people up front is what wins titles. So get excited if you want when your team shells out for Mr. Big Free Agent but don't go betting the house on results. NFL history has definitely displayed a tendency for these signings to fail more often than not.

So who will the Browns pick up with their $43 million to spend? I can't wait to see, Super Bowl Baby!!!

All this because I know more about nothing...

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